Mutharika likely to win 2019 elections, predicts UK Economist Intelligence Unit
A new country report for Malawi released by London-based Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has suggested that President Peter Mutharika will win the presidential elections due in 2019.
EIU is one of the world’s most renowned research and analysis institutions and in July last year the institution made similar observations but warned that Mutharika could slip if the economy worsens.
At mean time the country’s economy has rapidly improved with the inflation rate now at 16.10 percent.
“The president, Peter Mutharika, is expected to remain in power, as his rivals are too divided to mount an effective challenge,” reads EIU’s review generated on March 30, 2017.
The EIU made the same prediction in a similar report released in March last year.
The report says it expects Mutharika and the DPP to remain in power throughout the forecast period, securing re-election in the 2019 election.
It says former president Joyce Banda’s recent announcement that she would return to the Peoples Party (PP) leadership does not threaten Mutharika.
The report says regardless of which party Joyce Banda represents “we consider Mrs. Banda’s electoral prospects to be relatively bleak.”
The EIU says in the minds of voters, Banda still represents an era of Malawian politics that is characterized by corruption.
“Moreover, after the prolonged absence of its leader, the PP will struggle to mobilize the party
machinery to effectively challenge the DPP.
“We maintain our view that the incumbent, Peter Mutharika, is the favourite ahead of
the 2019 presidential election, regardless of whether Ms Banda returns to politics,” it says.
It also notes that fierce divisions in MCP weaken its ability to put up a serious electoral threat while Moses Kunkuyu’s Transformation Alliance (TA) does not have enough organizational status to give it a chance in 2019.
Opposition political parties may resort to take advantage of their numerical advantage in Parliament to attempt to sabotage government business.
However, the EIU says, they would struggle to secure the support base that would enable them to dislodge Mutharika from power come 2019.
It further adds that Malawi’s famed stability is not under threat, although low public confidence in public institutions and a shaky political landscape will continue to frustrate the needed political and economic reform.
It also forecasts that while political volatility may heighten in the run up to and immediately after the elections in 2019 – as has been the case in precious election periods – election-related volatility is unlikely to seriously threaten Malawi’s underlying stability.
According to EIU, Malawi’s democratic processes are reasonably well-established. Because of this attempts to scale any unrest up to a level that could challenge the Mutharika government’s hold on power are unlikely.
But EIU’s predictions have been welcomed by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) while the opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) has dismissed it.
Francis Kasaila, spokesman of DPP said while the party is at an advantage because of its popularity in the populous Southern Region, it is also making inroads in the Central Region, the MCP’s stronghold.
“The EIU predictions could not be far from the truth. DPP is strethening,” Kasaila said.
MCP deputy secretary general Eisenhower Mkaka played down the prediction that DPP will still win in 2019, saying the opposition has also be strategising on winning the Southern Region.
He said the state of affairs is completely crumbling and everything, ranging from key sectors of agriculture, education and health, is failing thereby making Malawians face the consequences.
Mkaka said the major problem in Malawi is corruption.
“If we root out corruption; we will be on our way to economic development because Escom, water boards, the health system are all failing because of corruption.
“So, the major challenge is how to root out corruption . Malawians will not give mandate of governing to thieves again,” he said.
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SANTANA,in the first place I would like to warn you that your English is horribly outdated,you better go to a Night School to improve your English jargon.Seondly,you must be ashamed to support Muthalika’s heinous and shameful leadership.If Santana supports the failed President on tribal basis,then he is a traitor to our nation.He continues saying that our villagers who hold 80 percentage of national voters,do not vote on principals (it should be PRINCIPLES,Santana),this indicates to me that you are untutored and therefore,you do not comprehend the current issues of your own country.The massive people from villages,voted massively during the multi-party elections… Read more »
Nkhaniyi ndiopatsa mselu, Azungu dzikoli silawo ndipo they should STOP predicting any a fair in our African countries. If you are in your house with your parents nobody should come and say your father is bad or is a good one and expect to do alot. while ine mwana wao ndikuvutika, ndiphula Njerwa za moto. I repeat STOP commenting on our fares inu a Zungu a UEI. Wait for us the owners of the country to tell you who is our best. APM he dont know the roots of Malawi or malawians how can he lead the people to whom… Read more »
JB to win in 2014 elections! EIU According to Al-Jazeera. “Among the urban intelligentsia and the people who can read newspapers and who can listen to the radio, I think the scandal had seriously affected her chance,” said Hajat. “But votes mostly come from rural areas, where over 60 percent of the population lives. There, she has been pursuing her pro-poor initiatives, which have great impact on rural people as she is portraying a caring mother’s image.” In its brief on the country’s elections, the UK-based think-tank Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicted Banda would win amid a split vote between… Read more »
This is what EIU says about Malawi on its page ” A split parliament, coupled with widespread popular discontent over high living costs, weak governance and rampant corruption, will stir some political volatility, but underlying stability is expected to remain intact. The economy will remain vulnerable to external shocks, stemming from highly volatile agricultural output, a narrow export base and aid dependency. Amid severe drought, we expect a slowdown in economic growth in the near-term and further inflationary pressures. “
Malawians displaying their ignorance over Dr Dulani’s report. The report shows trust on APM at 40% compared with other institutions like chiefs, trad leaders, mps etc. 40% is an improvement from 36% he amassed in 2014. If Dr Dulani were to compare this trust with opposition leaders you will be shocked to find that with 40% APM is still the most popular. Is it not true that opposition were banking on a collapsed economy to decampaign APM? Wake up and strategise instead of waiting for crisis and calaminities to dislodge APM.
EIU is an international propaganda unit both for political and business institutions which pay for their services to strategise the institutions agenda and consutancy plans. to rigging and monopolising.Most of African rulling parties are customers and some rich people. are also customers including international businesses.They dont just come up with a report without. payment..Their report is always with secret strategic plan to rigging .Open up Malawi.
The time of this so called research clearly shows the panic mode the DPP is in and the whole thing is fake. Where was the DPP before the Chancellor College research report. Whatever tactics they use, the truth about Dulani’s research will not be erased in our minds and it is only the myopic that will belief the fake research of The Economist. The media should dig deeper to find out the truth about the purported UK reserach. I will rule Gambia for a billion years.
Funny how the UK Economic Intelligence Unit report comes hot on the heels of Fulani’s Survey. Counter Terrorism?
The report they are referring to is outdated and its not even on EIU website. These fools are referring to report dated 14 July 2016 and we are in 2017. Osakamba za pano bwanji… muli busy kukamba zinthu zomwe zinachitika maize gate isanaphulitsidwe.. Face the reality angolopiyo inu…
kkkkkk its too early you DPP to start this mind games. Yesterday you brought your sisters on MBCtv for propaganda. We will vote and we know who to vote for. If APM had brains, he would have pave way for others to lead as he has shown lack of leadership skills.