By-election Results and Defections Leave Opposition Struggling in the North, Says Analysts

The recent by-election results in Karonga, coupled with a series of defections by opposition Members of Parliament (MPs) and ward councilors, have left opposition parties facing an uphill political battle in the North North region, which includes Rumphi, Karonga, and Chitipa districts, political analysts have observed.

In the past year, the ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP) secured all three seats in the Karonga wards by-election and later welcomed two Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) councilors, along with independent MP for Rumphi West, Jonah Mkandawire. The trend continued this month as MCP officially welcomed Chitipa Wenya MP, Welani Chilenga, and Karonga North MP, Mungasulwa Mwambande.

Commentators, including governance analyst Undule Mwakasungula and Youth Action Campaign (YAC) executive director Jackson Caesar-Msiska, have described these developments as a wake-up call for the opposition.

“In the 2019 elections, the North North region was almost equally shared between MCP and DPP in terms of MPs and ward councilors. But today, MCP has gained significant ground as many leaders have joined them. This should worry the opposition as the 2025 elections approach,” they said.

While the opposition may have a stronger footing in other parts of the North, the situation in the North North region presents a serious challenge despite the presence of opposition figures, including a cabinet minister and members of their National Governing Council (NEC).

According to analysts, the ruling party’s growing influence in the region is not just due to defections but also because of its leadership and developmental projects.

“I will give you an example of the party’s second deputy secretary general, Uchizi Mkandawire. He has used his ministerial position to benefit the region since his time as vice chairperson of the area. Mkandawire and his team have worked hard to strengthen MCP’s grassroots structures,” highlighted Msiska.

The analysts believe MCP stands a strong chance of securing more votes and seats in the region, especially if the opposition fails to reorganize itself, warning that the North North region could play a decisive role in the 50+1 electoral system.

However, DPP Vice President for the North, Jappie Mhango, dismissed the concerns, insisting that his party will defeat MCP in the next elections scheduled for 6th September 2025.

“The entire Northern Region is tired of the current administration,” Mhango declared.

With the 2025 elections approaching, the opposition faces the daunting task of reclaiming lost ground in a region where MCP’s influence appears to be steadily growing.

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