Malawi, Africa Hit Hard: Three Years of Ukraine Invasion

Three years ago, on February 24, the world was shaken by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite widespread international condemnation and ongoing efforts to end the war, countries like Malawi and many others across Africa continue to grapple with its far-reaching consequences.

Economic Struggles and Rising Costs

Before the war, Malawi heavily relied on wheat imports from Ukraine, as it lacked the capacity to produce its own. The conflict disrupted supply chains, leading to skyrocketing prices that have severely impacted businesses and households alike.

“The price of bread and other confectioneries is no longer stable—I can’t afford it anymore. It feels like manufacturers are passing the extra costs onto us as consumers. We are told wheat is far more expensive now than it was before the war,” says Mercy Kapito, a widowed mother of five.

Human rights and governance expert Undule Mwakasungula echoes these concerns, stating that the war has increased Malawi’s economic burdens through rising food and commodity prices. However, he notes that international aid efforts have also opened opportunities for resilience-building initiatives in Malawi and other African nations.

Similarly, Victor Nyirenda, a resident of Lilongwe City, highlights the compounded effects of the war on Malawi, which has already been grappling with extreme weather events, the aftermath of COVID-19, and a cost-of-living crisis.

“In the past three years, Malawi has suffered from cyclones, droughts, floods, and pest invasions. During the same period, the cost of energy, fertilizers, and wheat—strategic imports—has skyrocketed,” Nyirenda explains.

Due to economic sanctions and trade restrictions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and other Western nations, Malawi can no longer import energy and fertilizers under preferential terms from Russia for fear of secondary sanctions. Additionally, funding for development and governance projects has been cut or reallocated to support Ukraine’s war efforts, further straining Malawi’s economy.

Africa’s Complex Position in the War

Reports of Malawian youths trapped in Russian war-related industries under Alabuga scholarships have raised concerns, though authorities have remained tight-lipped. The identities of these youths remain unclear, as do the details surrounding their situation. Similar cases involving youths from other African nations have also surfaced.

Despite repeated inquiries, Malawi’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not provided any official response. Last year, Benedicto Kondowe, chairperson of the National Action Plan (NAP), urged authorities to engage in dialogue with Russia for the safe repatriation of these individuals.

Malawi maintains diplomatic relations with both Russia and Ukraine. In 2023, the country received Russian fertilizer for distribution through the Agriculture Input Programme (AIP), with the shipment arriving via Mozambique. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, visited Malawi in 2024 as part of an African diplomatic tour that also included Zambia and Madagascar.

Despite Malawi’s silence on the fate of the youths allegedly trapped in Russian drone-making companies, the deaths of two African youths—Tanzania’s Nemes Tarimo and Zambia’s Lemekani Nyirenda—while fighting for Russia in Ukraine serve as stark reminders of the war’s reach into Africa. Both men had been serving prison sentences before being recruited by the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) under conditional release terms, only to lose their lives in the conflict.

Political commentator Mavuto Kaipa warns that Africa is more entangled in the war than it appears. “Many Africans are being drafted into the war effort, whether through coercion or economic necessity,” he says.

Pathways to Ending the War

Governance expert Mwakasungula insists that diplomatic negotiations remain the best solution, urging global and regional bodies like the United Nations (UN) to step up efforts to broker peace.

“Sanctions have not achieved their intended goals—they have only deepened the economic strain and prolonged the conflict. It’s time to prioritize diplomacy over punitive measures. A neutral facilitator like the UN is crucial to an inclusive peace process,” he argues.

Nyirenda agrees, emphasizing that only a negotiated settlement involving key global powers—Russia, the U.S., European nations, and China—can bring the war to an end.

For international relations scholar Gray Kasunda, mutual concessions are necessary. “If Putin and Zelenskyy can sit down and agree that Ukraine will not join NATO, while Russia ceases its expansionism and returns occupied territories, then peace is possible,” he suggests.

Shifting Global Dynamics and Africa’s Role

Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who took office on January 20, has pledged to end the Ukraine war swiftly. His outreach to both Putin and Zelenskyy has raised concerns among European allies, who fear being sidelined in peace negotiations. These fears were reinforced when Trump’s Ukraine envoy confirmed that Europe would not have a seat at the negotiating table, with Washington instead surveying European nations on their contributions to Kyiv’s security.

Regional African blocs like the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Eastern African Community (EAC), and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have acknowledged that the war has intensified global political divisions. The African Union Commission (AUC) has warned that the conflict is reigniting Cold War-era tensions, forcing African nations to navigate a complex diplomatic landscape.

Retired diplomat Christopher Kamanga highlights the broader geopolitical implications. “The war has destabilized the global security framework established after World War II. Russia’s invasion violates the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against sovereign states,” he explains.

With the U.S. reportedly shifting its focus toward containing China, the outcome of the Ukraine war could shape future geopolitical alignments. Nyirenda speculates that the resolution of the conflict will depend on Trump’s political calculations compared to those of former President Joe Biden.

“The economic war of reciprocal trade tariffs and technology restrictions is ongoing, and the battleground may soon shift. If the U.S. reduces its role in Ukraine, it could signal a broader strategy shift,” he concludes.

As Russia advances on the battlefield and the U.S. reconsiders its role, analysts warn that now is the time to highlight the dangers of territorial aggression and the immense civilian toll of prolonged conflict.

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