Op-Ed: Erroneous political mathematics will cost opposition again
As we fast approach the fresh presidential election, the opposition and so the ruling party with its agents are busy wooing people to vote for them in the coming elections.
On a lighter note, let me make it clear that politics is much diverse from romance where lies and deception at times becomes the order of the day.
If partisan strategists bank their moves on fabrications, trickery and persuading the electorates, this unquestionably is a recipe for losing an election.
In politics, just one mistake, is good enough to cost you the whole election.
Esteemed readers, let’s get back to our core business for the day by having some climaxes of the former two elections.
In 2014 elections, President Prof. Arthur Peter Mutharika got 1,904,399 votes to be declared winner beating blatantly the then incumbent President Joyce Banda who came third with 1,056,236 votes and the new kid on the block Lazarus Chakwera amassing 1,455,880 votes.
Fast forward to 2019 elections, opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and Peoples Party (PP) entered into an alliance, in their understanding, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was finished and Chakwera was poised to be the next president as they thought, the 1,455,880 votes Chakwera got adding the 1,056,236 votes Joyce Banda got in 2014 elections, this alliance in total had 2,512,116 votes .Using these deceptive political calculations, this partnership won elections automatically.
In 2020 elections, the opposition parties; MCP, UTM, PP and other 7 wallet political parties have entered into a political alliance once more, this time around, they are sure they are done with DPP.
In their perception, DPP is going to be buried, DPP is finished, DPP will be no more after the elections and at all cost, this alliance has won the elections.
It’s comical again that the opposition does not pick up from the past, what gives them self-assurance that they will win the election?
Another joke from their so called Monday strategists analysis which say; “if MCP and PP got 1,781,740 votes , Chilima and his UTM got 1,018,369 , summing up Chilima and Chakwera votes in the annulled presidential election, this pair of Tonse alliance has 2, 800,109 votes to their credit. They have won already.”
On the other hand, President Mutharika was declared a winner with 1,940,709 votes while his running mate Atupele Muluzi got 235,164 coming to a total of 2,175,873 votes.
This is where the opposition has missed it big time and their loss in the next election will be based on a wrong political arithmetic, they have banked their hopes on.
The coming elections are far beyond adding votes of what the alliance partners attained in the past election. Never say you were not warned on the day election results will be announced by trying to fool us that the elections were rigged again.
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Come again with your analysis cadet iwe,Tonse Alliance ija yawinatu khangati it was your DPP/UDF Alliance that grossly miscalculated…or is you?
It is myopic thinking by the writer to assume that it is only the opposition that has missed while DPP/UTM strategists has won. A good analysis should have flashed out the current political developments not the past ones. APM won the 2014 elections because of JBs cash gate scandal, lack of PP’s solid political base and political sympathy to APM having lost his brother late Bingu. The opposition may win the next Tuesday’s elections because of a number of factors which include having the best organised and much more political rallies than DPP/UDF combined.Secondly, the opposition has had a better… Read more »
Let us wait and see who will carry the day after elections. We are not sure that those are the real figures which made them to win during last elections. Coz kubera kumakhalapo nde zikavuta zoberazo apa ndipomwe tione zeni zeni
The assumptions herein are too subjective. The current MEC Chairman being a Malawian and knows the reasoning capabilities of an average Malawian, immediately forewarned that people/parties shouldn’t be cheated by the numbers/crowds of people attending their gatherings. What will matter after the counting is done will be the number of votes collected by each participant. The one with more votes will carry the day. Comparing the past with what will happen does not hold. This is why a number of times those who went around campaigning were being reminded to concentrate on enlightening the people their plans other than waste… Read more »
UDF and DPP akawina ndiye Kut a bera apart from 2009 election.What about tippex used by MEC commissioners to push DPP figures ahead of other candidates in 2019?
I sadly need to remind the writer that DPP lost even before the election started. The old man is done once and for all whether Atupele wins or Chakwera. Only cowards will talk about DPP after 23rd. It is over. As I said before both Atupele and Chakwera has arrests list and only UDF ‘s list is much longer than MCP but DPP officials will be arrested whether they want it or not after 23rd June. It is pay back time.
Emotions don’t produce results. God does not honour evil thoughts. DPP is not about Mutharika. People vote for it because of its manifesto, is what matters. If you have a list of arrest, keep it safe, and see what God reveals to the nation. Emotions are not manifestos, people want to hear development, not court battles, then the country will not move any inch. We have see cases that have never sorted up to now. Atupele is humble and doesn’t have emotions like Chilima. By the way , Chilima said he will reveal names once elected as president, since he… Read more »
Kuzikonda, dyela kwambiri komaso kuganiza mopusa a Lomwenu, be reminded that late Bingu was all about revenge when he became president in 2004, former Minister of Education Mwawa ,former Speaker Sam Mpasu, former MP Louis Banda all served jail terms. Bakili Muluzi was saved from jail term because of fake sicknesses following the protracted MK1.7 billion fraud case.
This article presents the facts of social and political dynamics. An excellent free lecture for them
UTMCP will win because 6.8 million registered and only 5.8 million voted.This Election more will VOTE because of the courageous efforts of Chilima and Chakwera to safe guard the Democracy of Malawi. THATS WHY I AM VOTING UTMCP Tuesday
Only a stupid person will really think the way you do. It is very simple, not all votes that went to Chilima or Atupele or peter or Chakwera will automatically be retained by respective candidates. People do change their minds. Also you have to consider those that were registered in 2019 but didn’t vote, some or most will this time vote whichever they chose. Swing votes will determine who will win if dpp doesn’t cheat as usual.
It is therefore not automatic that Peter or Lazarus will win.
Every one is rightly entitled to imagine they are better political weather forecasters of elections. I have heard the experts of weather forecast daily tell us to expect rains on a certain day and to my surprise no rain came on the day. Often they get right. Whatever happens this coming Tuesday, some political weather forecast experts are likely to be hugely successful while for others expected ” rains” nowhere to be seen.Let’s all wait and see, it’s just less than three days away. Meanwhile let the forecasts keep coming it’s part of life! Good luck.